Preface |
The Scope of Mathematical Modeling / Chapter 1: |
Models, Mathematical and Otherwise / 1: |
Steps in Building a Mathematical Model / 2: |
Approximate and Limited Models--Gravity, Rockets, and Raindrops / 3: |
Macro and Micro Population Models I--Exponential Growth / 4: |
Macro and Micro Population Models II--The Leslie Matrix / 5: |
Macro and Micro Population Models III--Family-Planning Models / 6: |
Descriptive and Prescriptive Models--Inventory Policy / 7: |
The Relation of Models to Data / Chapter 2: |
Sources of Error--Underground Exploration of the Earth |
Adjusting Data I (The Easy Way)--The Mean and the Maximum Likelihood |
Adjusting Data II (The Hard Way)--Miscellaneous Methods and Examples |
Testing Models--Weighted-Voting Games |
Putting the Facts in Order--Mendeleev and the Periodic Table |
Evaluation of Mathematical Models / Chapter 3: |
A Bird's-Eye View of Evaluation--College Enrollment |
Descriptive Realism--Simple Linear Regression |
Descriptive Realism--Correlation Is Not Causation |
Accuracy--Multiple Linear Regression |
Precision--Malthus and the Dismal Theorem |
Generality and Fruitfulness--From Astrology to Technology with Kepler and Newton |
Robustness--The Ups and Downs of Ancient Astronomy |
Optimization / Chapter 4: |
Classical Optimization |
Linear Programming--Formulation and Graphical Solution |
An Outline of the Simplex Method |
Integer Programming--The Knapsack and Traveling Salesman Problems |
The Transportation Problem |
Combinatorial Optimization--The Chinese Postman Problem |
Choosing the Mathematics for the Model / Chapter 5: |
Simulation versus Analytic Solution--Queueing Up in the Doctor's Waiting Room |
Discrete versus Continuous Models |
Introduction to Difference Equations / 2A: |
Exponential Population Growth--Difference and Differential Equations / 2B: |
Logistic Population Growth--Difference and Differential Equations / 2C: |
Equilibrium, Stable and Unstable / 2D: |
Stability of Linear Difference Equations--Commodity Prices and Cobweb Analysis / 2E: |
Stability of Some Nonlinear Difference Equations--Logistic Population Growth / 2F: |
Deterministic versus Stochastic Models--Forecasting Epidemics |
An Outline of Probability / 3A: |
A Day in the Life of an Epidemic--Stochastic and Deterministic Views / 3B: |
The Lifetime of a Deterministic Epidemic / 3C: |
The Lifetime of a Simple Stochastic Epidemic / 3D: |
Appendix |
Answers to Selected Exercises |
Index |
Preface |
The Scope of Mathematical Modeling / Chapter 1: |
Models, Mathematical and Otherwise / 1: |
Steps in Building a Mathematical Model / 2: |
Approximate and Limited Models--Gravity, Rockets, and Raindrops / 3: |
Macro and Micro Population Models I--Exponential Growth / 4: |