Preface |
Risk in Perspective / 1: |
Risk / 1.1: |
Risk and Randomness / 1.1.1: |
Financial Risk / 1.1.2: |
Measurement and Management / 1.1.3: |
A Brief History of Risk Management / 1.2: |
From Babylon to Wall Street / 1.2.1: |
The Road to Regulation / 1.2.2: |
The New Regulatory Framework / 1.3: |
Basel II / 1.3.1: |
Solvency 2 / 1.3.2: |
Why Manage Financial Risk? / 1.4: |
A Societal View / 1.4.1: |
The Shareholder's View / 1.4.2: |
Economic Capital / 1.4.3: |
Quantitative Risk Management / 1.5: |
The Nature of the Challenge / 1.5.1: |
QRM for the Future / 1.5.2: |
Basic Concepts in Risk Management / 2: |
Risk Factors and Loss Distributions / 2.1: |
General Definitions / 2.1.1: |
Conditional and Unconditional Loss Distribution / 2.1.2: |
Mapping of Risks: Some Examples / 2.1.3: |
Risk Measurement / 2.2: |
Approaches to Risk Measurement / 2.2.1: |
Value-at-Risk / 2.2.2: |
Further Comments on VaR / 2.2.3: |
Other Risk Measures Based on Loss Distributions / 2.2.4: |
Standard Methods for Market Risks / 2.3: |
Variance-Covariance Method / 2.3.1: |
Historical Simulation / 2.3.2: |
Monte Carlo / 2.3.3: |
Losses over Several Periods and Scaling / 2.3.4: |
Backtesting / 2.3.5: |
An Illustrative Example / 2.3.6: |
Multivariate Models / 3: |
Basics of Multivariate Modelling / 3.1: |
Random Vectors and Their Distributions / 3.1.1: |
Standard Estimators of Covariance and Correlation / 3.1.2: |
The Multivariate Normal Distribution / 3.1.3: |
Testing Normality and Multivariate Normality / 3.1.4: |
Normal Mixture Distributions / 3.2: |
Normal Variance Mixtures / 3.2.1: |
Normal Mean-Variance Mixtures / 3.2.2: |
Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions / 3.2.3: |
Fitting Generalized Hyperbolic Distributions to Data / 3.2.4: |
Empirical Examples / 3.2.5: |
Spherical and Elliptical Distributions / 3.3: |
Spherical Distributions / 3.3.1: |
Elliptical Distributions / 3.3.2: |
Properties of Elliptical Distributions / 3.3.3: |
Estimating Dispersion and Correlation / 3.3.4: |
Testing for Elliptical Symmetry / 3.3.5: |
Dimension Reduction Techniques / 3.4: |
Factor Models / 3.4.1: |
Statistical Calibration Strategies / 3.4.2: |
Regression Analysis of Factor Models / 3.4.3: |
Principal Component Analysis / 3.4.4: |
Financial Time Series / 4: |
Empirical Analyses of Financial Time Series / 4.1: |
Stylized Facts / 4.1.1: |
Multivariate Stylized Facts / 4.1.2: |
Fundamentals of Time Series Analysis / 4.2: |
Basic Definitions / 4.2.1: |
ARMA Processes / 4.2.2: |
Analysis in the Time Domain / 4.2.3: |
Statistical Analysis of Time Series / 4.2.4: |
Prediction / 4.2.5: |
GARCH Models for Changing Volatility / 4.3: |
ARCH Processes / 4.3.1: |
GARCH Processes / 4.3.2: |
Simple Extensions of the GARCH Model / 4.3.3: |
Fitting GARCH Models to Data / 4.3.4: |
Volatility Models and Risk Estimation / 4.4: |
Volatility Forecasting / 4.4.1: |
Conditional Risk Measurement / 4.4.2: |
Fundamentals of Multivariate Time Series / 4.4.3: |
Multivariate ARMA Processes / 4.5.1: |
Multivariate GARCH Processes / 4.6: |
General Structure of Models / 4.6.1: |
Models for Conditional Correlation / 4.6.2: |
Models for Conditional Covariance / 4.6.3: |
Fitting Multivariate GARCH Models / 4.6.4: |
Dimension Reduction in MGARCH / 4.6.5: |
MGARCH and Conditional Risk Measurement / 4.6.6: |
Copulas and Dependence / 5: |
Copulas / 5.1: |
Basic Properties / 5.1.1: |
Examples of Copulas / 5.1.2: |
Meta Distributions / 5.1.3: |
Simulation of Copulas and Meta Distributions / 5.1.4: |
Further Properties of Copulas / 5.1.5: |
Perfect Dependence / 5.1.6: |
Dependence Measures / 5.2: |
Linear Correlation / 5.2.1: |
Rank Correlation / 5.2.2: |
Coefficients of Tail Dependence / 5.2.3: |
Normal Mixture Copulas / 5.3: |
Tail Dependence / 5.3.1: |
Rank Correlations / 5.3.2: |
Skewed Normal Mixture Copulas / 5.3.3: |
Grouped Normal Mixture Copulas / 5.3.4: |
Archimedean Copulas / 5.4: |
Bivariate Archimedean Copulas / 5.4.1: |
Multivariate Archimedean Copulas / 5.4.2: |
Non-exchangeable Archimedean Copulas / 5.4.3: |
Fitting Copulas to Data / 5.5: |
Method-of-Moments using Rank Correlation / 5.5.1: |
Forming a Pseudo-Sample from the Copula / 5.5.2: |
Maximum Likelihood Estimation / 5.5.3: |
Aggregate Risk / 6: |
Coherent Measures of Risk / 6.1: |
The Axioms of Coherence / 6.1.1: |
Coherent Risk Measures Based on Loss Distributions / 6.1.2: |
Coherent Risk Measures as Generalized Scenarios / 6.1.4: |
Mean-VaR Portfolio Optimization / 6.1.5: |
Bounds for Aggregate Risks / 6.2: |
The General Frechet Problem / 6.2.1: |
The Case of VaR / 6.2.2: |
Capital Allocation / 6.3: |
The Allocation Problem / 6.3.1: |
The Euler Principle and Examples / 6.3.2: |
Economic Justification of the Euler Principle / 6.3.3: |
Extreme Value Theory / 7: |
Maxima / 7.1: |
Generalized Extreme Value Distribution / 7.1.1: |
Maximum Domains of Attraction / 7.1.2: |
Maxima of Strictly Stationary Time Series / 7.1.3: |
The Block Maxima Method / 7.1.4: |
Threshold Exceedances / 7.2: |
Generalized Pareto Distribution / 7.2.1: |
Modelling Excess Losses / 7.2.2: |
Modelling Tails and Measures of Tail Risk / 7.2.3: |
The Hill Method / 7.2.4: |
Simulation Study of EVT Quantile Estimators / 7.2.5: |
Conditional EVT for Financial Time Series / 7.2.6: |
Tails of Specific Models / 7.3: |
Domain of Attraction of Frechet Distribution / 7.3.1: |
Domain of Attraction of Gumbel Distribution / 7.3.2: |
Mixture Models / 7.3.3: |
Point Process Models / 7.4: |
Threshold Exceedances for Strict White Noise / 7.4.1: |
The POT Model / 7.4.2: |
Self-Exciting Processes / 7.4.3: |
A Self-Exciting POT Model / 7.4.4: |
Multivariate Maxima / 7.5: |
Multivariate Extreme Value Copulas / 7.5.1: |
Copulas for Multivariate Minima / 7.5.2: |
Copula Domains of Attraction / 7.5.3: |
Modelling Multivariate Block Maxima / 7.5.4: |
Multivariate Threshold Exceedances / 7.6: |
Threshold Models Using EV Copulas / 7.6.1: |
Fitting a Multivariate Tail Model / 7.6.2: |
Threshold Copulas and Their Limits / 7.6.3: |
Credit Risk Management / 8: |
Introduction to Credit Risk Modelling / 8.1: |
Credit Risk Models / 8.1.1: |
Structural Models of Default / 8.1.2: |
The Merton Model / 8.2.1: |
Pricing in Merton's Model / 8.2.2: |
The KMV Model / 8.2.3: |
Models Based on Credit Migration / 8.2.4: |
Multivariate Firm-Value Models / 8.2.5: |
Threshold Models / 8.3: |
Notation for One-Period Portfolio Models / 8.3.1: |
Threshold Models and Copulas / 8.3.2: |
Industry Examples / 8.3.3: |
Models Based on Alternative Copulas / 8.3.4: |
Model Risk Issues / 8.3.5: |
The Mixture Model Approach / 8.4: |
One-Factor Bernoulli Mixture Models / 8.4.1: |
CreditRisk+ / 8.4.2: |
Asymptotics for Large Portfolios / 8.4.3: |
Threshold Models as Mixture Models / 8.4.4: |
Model-Theoretic Aspects of Basel II / 8.4.5: |
Monte Carlo Methods / 8.4.6: |
Basics of Importance Sampling / 8.5.1: |
Application to Bernoulli-Mixture Models / 8.5.2: |
Statistical Inference for Mixture Models / 8.6: |
Motivation / 8.6.1: |
Exchangeable Bernoulli-Mixture Models / 8.6.2: |
Mixture Models as GLMMs / 8.6.3: |
One-Factor Model with Rating Effect / 8.6.4: |
Dynamic Credit Risk Models / 9: |
Credit Derivatives / 9.1: |
Overview / 9.1.1: |
Single-Name Credit Derivatives / 9.1.2: |
Portfolio Credit Derivatives / 9.1.3: |
Mathematical Tools / 9.2: |
Random Times and Hazard Rates / 9.2.1: |
Modelling Additional Information / 9.2.2: |
Doubly Stochastic Random Times / 9.2.3: |
Financial and Actuarial Pricing of Credit Risk / 9.3: |
Physical and Risk-Neutral Probability Measure / 9.3.1: |
Risk-Neutral Pricing and Market Completeness / 9.3.2: |
Martingale Modelling / 9.3.3: |
The Actuarial Approach to Credit Risk Pricing / 9.3.4: |
Pricing with Doubly Stochastic Default Times / 9.4: |
Recovery Payments of Corporate Bonds / 9.4.1: |
The Model / 9.4.2: |
Pricing Formulas / 9.4.3: |
Applications / 9.4.4: |
Affine Models / 9.5: |
Basic Results / 9.5.1: |
The CIR Square-Root Diffusion / 9.5.2: |
Extensions / 9.5.3: |
Conditionally Independent Defaults / 9.6: |
Reduced-Form Models for Portfolio Credit Risk / 9.6.1: |
Conditionally Independent Default Times / 9.6.2: |
Examples and Applications / 9.6.3: |
Copula Models / 9.7: |
Definition and General Properties / 9.7.1: |
Factor Copula Models / 9.7.2: |
Default Contagion in Reduced-Form Models / 9.8: |
Default Contagion and Default Dependence / 9.8.1: |
Information-Based Default Contagion / 9.8.2: |
Interacting Intensities / 9.8.3: |
Operational Risk and Insurance Analytics / 10: |
Operational Risk in Perspective / 10.1: |
A New Risk Class / 10.1.1: |
The Elementary Approaches / 10.1.2: |
Advanced Measurement Approaches / 10.1.3: |
Operational Loss Data / 10.1.4: |
Elements of Insurance Analytics / 10.2: |
The Case for Acturaial Methodology / 10.2.1: |
The Total Loss Amount / 10.2.2: |
Approximations and Panjer Recursion / 10.2.3: |
Poisson Mixtures / 10.2.4: |
Tails of Aggregate Loss Distributions / 10.2.5: |
The Homogeneous Poisson Process / 10.2.6: |
Processes Related to the Poisson Process / 10.2.7: |
Appendix |
Miscellaneous Definitions and Results / A.1: |
Type of Distribution / A.1.1: |
Generalized Inverses and Quantiles / A.1.2: |
Karamata's Theorem / A.1.3: |
Probability Distributions / A.2: |
Beta / A.2.1: |
Exponential / A.2.2: |
F / A.2.3: |
Gamma / A.2.4: |
Generalized Inverse Gaussian / A.2.5: |
Inverse Gamma / A.2.6: |
Negative Binomial / A.2.7: |
Pareto / A.2.8: |
Stable / A.2.9: |
Likelihood Inference / A.3: |
Maximum Likelihood Estimators / A.3.1: |
Asymptotic Results: Scalar Parameter / A.3.2: |
Asymptotic Results: Vector of Parameters / A.3.3: |
Wald Test and Confidence Intervals / A.3.4: |
Likelihood Ratio Test and Confidence Intervals / A.3.5: |
Akaike Information Criterion / A.3.6: |
References |
Index |