| Preface |
| The Scope of Mathematical Modeling / Chapter 1： |
| Models, Mathematical and Otherwise / 1： |
| Steps in Building a Mathematical Model / 2： |
| Approximate and Limited Models--Gravity, Rockets, and Raindrops / 3： |
| Macro and Micro Population Models I--Exponential Growth / 4： |
| Macro and Micro Population Models II--The Leslie Matrix / 5： |
| Macro and Micro Population Models III--Family-Planning Models / 6： |
| Descriptive and Prescriptive Models--Inventory Policy / 7： |
| The Relation of Models to Data / Chapter 2： |
| Sources of Error--Underground Exploration of the Earth |
| Adjusting Data I (The Easy Way)--The Mean and the Maximum Likelihood |
| Adjusting Data II (The Hard Way)--Miscellaneous Methods and Examples |
| Testing Models--Weighted-Voting Games |
| Putting the Facts in Order--Mendeleev and the Periodic Table |
| Evaluation of Mathematical Models / Chapter 3： |
| A Bird's-Eye View of Evaluation--College Enrollment |
| Descriptive Realism--Simple Linear Regression |
| Descriptive Realism--Correlation Is Not Causation |
| Accuracy--Multiple Linear Regression |
| Precision--Malthus and the Dismal Theorem |
| Generality and Fruitfulness--From Astrology to Technology with Kepler and Newton |
| Robustness--The Ups and Downs of Ancient Astronomy |
| Optimization / Chapter 4： |
| Classical Optimization |
| Linear Programming--Formulation and Graphical Solution |
| An Outline of the Simplex Method |
| Integer Programming--The Knapsack and Traveling Salesman Problems |
| The Transportation Problem |
| Combinatorial Optimization--The Chinese Postman Problem |
| Choosing the Mathematics for the Model / Chapter 5： |
| Simulation versus Analytic Solution--Queueing Up in the Doctor's Waiting Room |
| Discrete versus Continuous Models |
| Introduction to Difference Equations / 2A： |
| Exponential Population Growth--Difference and Differential Equations / 2B： |
| Logistic Population Growth--Difference and Differential Equations / 2C： |
| Equilibrium, Stable and Unstable / 2D： |
| Stability of Linear Difference Equations--Commodity Prices and Cobweb Analysis / 2E： |
| Stability of Some Nonlinear Difference Equations--Logistic Population Growth / 2F： |
| Deterministic versus Stochastic Models--Forecasting Epidemics |
| An Outline of Probability / 3A： |
| A Day in the Life of an Epidemic--Stochastic and Deterministic Views / 3B： |
| The Lifetime of a Deterministic Epidemic / 3C： |
| The Lifetime of a Simple Stochastic Epidemic / 3D： |
| Appendix |
| Answers to Selected Exercises |
| Index |
| Preface |
| The Scope of Mathematical Modeling / Chapter 1： |
| Models, Mathematical and Otherwise / 1： |
図書
