Preface |
Acknowledgments |
About the Authors |
Introduction / Chapter 1: |
Portfolio Allocation: Classical Theory And Modern Extensions / Part 1: |
Mean-Variance Analysis and Modern Portfolio Theory / Chapter 2: |
Transaction and Trading Costs / Chapter 3: |
Applying the Portfolio Selection Framework in Practice / Chapter 4: |
Incorporating Higher Moments and Extreme Risk Measures / Chapter 5: |
Mathematical and Numerical Optimization / Chapter 6: |
Managing Uncertainty In Practice / Part 2: |
Equity Price Models / Chapter 7: |
Forecasting Expected Return and Risk / Chapter 8: |
Robust Frameworks for Estimation and Portfolio Allocation / Chapter 9: |
Dynaic Models For Eqity Prices / Part 3: |
Feedback and Predictors in Stock Markets / Chapter 10: |
Individual Price Processes: Univariate Models / Chapter 11: |
Multivariate Models / Chapter 12: |
Model Selection and its Pitfalls / Chapter 13: |
Model Estimation Amd Risk Mitigation / Part 4: |
Estimation of Regression Models / Chapter 14: |
Estimation of Linear Dynamic Models / Chapter 15: |
Estimation of Hidden Variable Models / Chapter 16: |
Model Risk and its Mitigation / Chapter 17: |
Differences Equations / Appendix A: |
Correlations, Regressions, and Copulas/ / Appendix B: |
Data Description / Appendix C: |
Index |
Historical Perspective on the Financial Modeling of the Equity Market |
Central Themes of the Book |
Organization of the Book |
Portfolio Allocation: Classical Theory and Modern Extensions |
The Benefits of Diversification |
Mean-Variance Analysis: Overview |
Classical Framework for Mean-Variance Optimization |
The Capital Market Line |
Selection of the Optimal Portfolio When there Is a Risk-Free Asset |
More on Utility Functions: A General Framework for Portfolio Choice |
Summary |
A Taxonomy of Transaction Costs |
Liquidity and Transaction Costs |
Market Impact Measurements and Empirical Findings |
Forecasting and Modeling Market Impact |
Incorporating Transaction Costs in Asset-Allocation Models |
Optimal Trading |
Integrated Portfolio Management: Beyond Expected Return and Portfolio Risk |
Rebalancing in the Mean-Variance Optimization Framework |
Portfolio Constraints Commonly Used in Practice |
Dispersion and Downside Measures |
Portfolio Selection with Higher Moments through Expansions of Utility |
Polynomial Goal Programming for Portfolio Optimization with Higher Moments |
Some Remarks on the Estimation of Higher Moments |
The Approach of Malevergne and Sornette |
Mathematical Programming |
Necessary Conditions for Optimality for Continuous Optimization Problems |
How Do Optimization Algorithms Work? |
Optimization Software |
Practical Considerations when Using Optimization Software |
Managing Uncertainty in Practice |
Definitions |
Theoretical and Econometric Models |
Random Walk Models |
General Equilibrium Theories |
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) |
Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) |
Dividend Discount and Residual Income Valuation Models |
The Sample Mean and Covariance Estimator |
Random Matrices |
Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Factor Models |
Factor Models in Practice |
Factor Models in Practice: An Example |
Other Approaches to Volatility Estimation |
Application to Investment Strategies and Proprietary Trading |
Practical Problems Encountered in Mean-Variance Optimization |
Shrinkage Estimation |
Bayesian Approaches |
Incorporating Estimation Error and Uncertainty in the Portfolio Allocation Process |
Dynamic Models for Equity Prices |
Random Walk Models and Their Shortcomings |
Time Diversification |
A Multiagent Economy: Effects of Agent Heterogeneity and Interactions |
Market Predictors |
Time Aggregation |
Time Series Concepts |
Digression on White Noise and Martingale Difference Sequences |
The Lag Operator L |
Univariate Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) Models |
Stationarity Conditions |
Auto Correlations at Different Lags |
Solutions of an AR(p) Process |
MA(q) Moving Average Models |
ARMA(p,q) Models |
Integrated Processes |
Dynamic Models: A Historical Perspective |
Vector Autoregressive Models |
Vector Autoregressive Moving Average Models (VARMA) |
Distributional Properties |
Cointegration |
Stochastic and Deterministic Cointegration |
Common Trends |
Error Correction Models |
Forecasting with VAR Models |
State-Space Models |
Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models |
Dynamic Factor Models |
The ARCH/GARCH Family of Models |
Nonlinear Markov-Switching Models |
Model Selection and Estimation |
The (Machine) Learning Approach to Model Selection |
Sample Size and Model Complexity |
Dangerous Patterns of Behavior |
Data Snooping |
Survivorship Biases and Other Sample Defects |
Moving Training Windows |
Model Risk |
Model Selection in a Nutshell |
Model Estimation and Model Risk Mitigation |
Probability Theory and Statistics |
Populations of Prices and Returns |
Estimation at Work |
Estimators |
Sampling Distributions |
Critical Values and Confidence Intervals |
Maximum Likelihood, OLS, and Regressions |
The Fisher Information Matrix and the Cramer-Rao Bound |
Regressions |
Linear Regressions |
Sampling Distributions of Regressions |
Relaxing the Normality and Uncorrelated Noise Assumptions |
Pitfalls of Regressions |
The Method of Moments and its Generalizations |
An Approach to Estimation |
Unit Root Testing |
Estimation of Linear Regression Models |
Estimation of Stable Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Models |
Estimating the Number of Lags |
Autocorrelation and Distributional Properties of Residuals |
Stationary Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models |
Applying Stable VAR Processes to Financial Econometrics |
Stationary Dynamic Factor Models |
Estimation of Nonstationary VAR Models |
Estimation with Canonical Correlations |
Estimation with Principal Component Analysis |
Estimation with the Eigenvalues of the Companion Matrix |
Estimation with Subspace Methods and Dynamic Factor Analysis |
Application of Cointegration Methods to the Analysis of Predictors |
Estimation of State-Space Models |
Estimation of Factor Analytic Models |
Estimation Methods for Markov-Switching Models |
Applications |
Sources of Model Risk |
The Information Theory Approach to Model Risk |
Bayesian Modeling |
Model Averaging and the Shrinkage Approach to Model Risk |
Random Coefficients Models |
Appendices |
Difference Equations |
Homogeneous Difference Equations |
Nonhomogeneous Difference Equations |
Systems of Linear Difference Equations |
Systems of Homogeneous Linear Difference Equations |
Correlations, Regressions, and Copulas |
Probability Density Function, Marginal Density, and Conditional Density |
Expectations and Conditional Expectations |
Variances, Covariances, and Correlations |
Normal Distributions |
Regression |
Multivariate Extension |
Multiple and Multivariate Regressions |
Canonical Correlations |
Copula Functions |