List of Contributors |
Preface |
Introduction - Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now / Thomas Gilovich ; Dale Griffin |
Theoretical and Empirical Extensions / Part 1.: |
Representativeness and Availability / A.: |
Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahneman1: |
Representativeness Revisited: Attribute Substitution in Intuitive Judgment / Shane Frederick2: |
How Alike Is It? versus How Likely Is It?: A Disjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgments / Maya Bar-Hillel ; Efrat Neter3: |
Imagining Can Heighten or Lower the Perceived Likelihood of Contracting a Disease: The Mediating Effect of Ease of Imagery / Steven J. Sherman ; Robert B. Cialdini ; Donna F. Schwartzman ; Kim D. Reynolds4: |
The Availability Heuristic Revisited: Ease of Recall and Content of Recall as Distinct Sources of Information / Norbert Schwarz ; Leigh Ann Vaughn5: |
Anchoring, Contamination, and Compatibility / B.: |
Incorporating the Irrelevant: Anchors in Judgments of Belief and Value / Gretchen B. Chapman ; Eric J. Johnson6: |
Putting Adjustment Back in the Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic / Nicholas Epley7: |
Self-Anchoring in Conversation: Why Language Users Do Not Do What They "Should" / Boaz Keysar ; Dale J. Barr8: |
Inferential Correction / Daniel T. Gilbert9: |
Mental Contamination and the Debiasing Problem / Timothy D. Wilson ; David B. Centerbar ; Nancy Brekke10: |
Sympathetic Magical Thinking: The Contagion and Similarity "Heuristics" / Paul Rozin ; Carol Nemeroff11: |
Compatibility Effects in Judgment and Choice / Paul Slovic12: |
Forecasting, Confidence, and Calibration / C.: |
The Weighing of Evidence and the Determinants of Confidence / 13: |
Inside the Planning Fallacy: The Causes and Consequences of Optimistic Time Predictions / Roger Buehler ; Michael Ross14: |
Probability Judgment across Cultures / J. Frank Yates ; Ju-Whei Lee ; Winston R. Sieck ; Incheol Choi ; Paul C. Price15: |
Durability Bias in Affective Forecasting / Elizabeth C. Pinel ; Stephen J. Blumberg ; Thalia P. Wheatley16: |
Optimism / D.: |
Resistance of Personal Risk Perceptions to Debiasing Interventions / Neil D. Weinstein ; William M. Klein17: |
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation: The Role of Idiosyncratic Trait Definitions in Self-Serving Assessments of Ability / David Dunning ; Judith A. Meyerowitz ; Amy D. Holzberg18: |
When Predictions Fail: The Dilemma of Unrealistic Optimism / David A. Armor ; Shelley E. Taylor19: |
Norms and Counterfactuals / E.: |
Norm Theory: Comparing Reality to Its Alternatives / Dale T. Miller20: |
Counterfactual Thought, Regret, and Superstition: How to Avoid Kicking Yourself / Brian R. Taylor21: |
New Theoretical Directions / Part 2.: |
Two Systems of Reasoning |
The Affect Heuristic / Steven A. Sloman ; Melissa Finucane ; Ellen Peters ; Donald G. MacGregor22: |
Individual Differences in Reasoning: Implications for the Rationality Debate? / Keith E. Stanovich ; Richard F. West24: |
Support Theory |
Support Theory: A Nonextensional Representation of Subjective Probability / Derek J. Koehler25: |
Unpacking, Repacking, and Anchoring: Advances in Support Theory / Yuval Rottenstreich26: |
Remarks on Support Theory: Recent Advances and Future Directions / Lyle A. Brenner27: |
Alternative Perspectives on Heuristics |
The Use of Statistical Heuristics in Everyday Inductive Reasoning / Richard E. Nisbett ; David H. Krantz ; Christopher Jepson ; Ziva Kunda28: |
Feelings as Information: Moods Influence Judgments and Processing Strategies / 29: |
Automated Choice Heuristics / 30: |
How Good Are Fast and Frugal Heuristics? / Gerd Gigerenzer ; Jean Czerlinski ; Laura Martignon31: |
Intuitive Politicians, Theologians, and Prosecutors: Exploring the Empirical Implications of Deviant Functionalist Metaphors / Philip E. Tetlock32: |
Real-World Applications / Part 3.: |
Everyday Judgment and Behavior |
The Hot Hand in Basketball: on the Misperception of Random Sequences / Robert Vallone33: |
Like Goes with Like: The Role of Representativeness in Erroneous and Pseudo-Scientific Beliefs / Kenneth Savitsky34: |
When Less Is More: Counterfactual Thinking and Satisfaction among Olympic Medalists / Victoria Husted Medvec ; Scott F. Madey35: |
Understanding Misunderstanding: Social Psychological Perspectives / Emily Pronin ; Carolyn Puccio ; Lee Ross36: |
Expert Judgment |
Assessing Uncertainty in Physical Constants / Max Henrion ; Baruch Fischhoff37: |
Do Analysts Overreact? / Werner F.M. De Bondt ; Richard H. Thaler38: |
The Calibration of Expert Judgment: Heuristics and Biases Beyond the Laboratory / Lyle Brenner39: |
Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment / Robyn M. Dawes ; David Faust ; Paul E. Meehl40: |
Heuristics and Biases in Application / 41: |
Theory-Driven Reasoning about Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics / 42: |
References |
Index |
Notes on contributors |
List of abbreviations |
The framework / Part I: |
An introduction to the issues / Sheldon Leader |
The linkages between project finance and sustainable development / Annie Dufey ; Maryanne Grieg-Gran |
Project finance and the relevant human rights / Ozgur Can Kahale |
Applying international environmental principles to project-financed transnational investment agreements / David Ong |
Special topics / Part II: |
Risk management, project finance and rights-based development |
Freezing the balancing act? Project finance, legal tools to manage regulatory risk, and sustainable development / Lorenzo Cotula |
Human rights impact assessments and project finance / Tamara Wiher Fernandez |
Project finance investments and political risk: an empirical investigation / Claudia Girardone ; Stuart Snaith |
Insurance as a risk management tool: a mitigating or aggravating factor? / Rasmiya Kazimova |
Irreparable damage, project finance and access to remedies by third parties / Judith Schonsteiner |
Case studies / Part III: |
The implications of the Chad-Cameroon and Sakhalin transnational investment agreements for the application of international environmental principles |
Project finance arrangements for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project: human rights and sustainable development implications |
The Orion and CMB pulp plants in Uruguay / Diana Morales |
The Newmont and Anglo Gold mining projects / Nil Ashie Kotey ; Poku Adusei |
Overview and recommendations |
List of Contributors |
Preface |
Introduction - Heuristics and Biases: Then and Now / Thomas Gilovich ; Dale Griffin |
Theoretical and Empirical Extensions / Part 1.: |
Representativeness and Availability / A.: |
Extensional versus Intuitive Reasoning: The Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment / Amos Tversky ; Daniel Kahneman1: |